Bitcoin Price Outlook Turns Bullish as Tariffs and Fed Tension Jolt Markets

Bitcoin isn’t drifting aimlessly anymore—it’s fighting to reclaim its edge. As price action hovers near the $85,000 mark, online sentiment has flipped bullish, just as macro pressures like U.S. tariffs and rate hike fears return to the spotlight.

According to Santiment, Bitcoin’s social media sentiment score climbed into “bullish territory” this week, reaching 1.973 after weeks of uncertainty. The move came as Bitcoin bounced between $83,000 and $86,000, keeping traders glued to their screens. “Traders are showing optimism that BTC can regain $90K, which will likely be dependent on tariff and global economy news as the week progresses,” Santiment posted on April 16.

Market Still Reacts More Like Risk Asset Than Gold

Despite all the digital gold talk, Bitcoin isn’t exactly playing the safe haven role many hoped it would. In fact, recent data show it’s behaving more like a risk proxy than a hedge.

Bitcoin is now strongly correlated with the AUD/JPY pair—a classic FX risk barometer. The 90-day correlation coefficient has jumped to its highest since 2021. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s correlation with gold has flipped sharply negative, landing at -0.80. That means Bitcoin and gold (C are now moving in opposite directions.

The U.S.–China trade war appears to be driving this divergence. As gold hits record highs for 12 straight days, Bitcoin is moving more in tandem with high-beta assets that track broader investor risk appetite.

Fed, Tariffs, and Sentiment Collide

Adding to the drama, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell poured cold water on hopes for early rate cuts. He warned that inflation remains a risk, especially as the economic impact of Trump’s tariffs unfolds. “I’m going to say no,” Powell said when asked if the Fed would act as a market backstop—a blunt dismissal of the so-called “Fed put.”

Still, Bitcoin has held its ground. It climbed 0.4% in the past 24 hours, and sits at $84,377. That strength, even as the Nasdaq slumped over 3%, hints at a possible decoupling from U.S. equities.

Whether that lasts is another story. As Jan3 CEO Samson Mow put it, Bitcoin hitting $500,000 “isn’t crazy.” But for now, it’s all about holding above $83K and seeing if those bullish bets pay off.