Several countries are offering incentives to encourage the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) to meet their climate goals. However, many EV makers are under pressure due to a high interest rate environment, macro challenges, growing competition, and a price war triggered by Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA). Bearing this in mind, we used TipRanks’ Stock Comparison Tool to place Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN), Nio (NYSE:NIO), and Tesla against each other to find the EV stock that can generate the most attractive returns, as per Wall Street analysts.
Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN)
Rivian manufactures R1T pickup trucks, R1S SUVs, and electric delivery vans (EDVs). Continued cash burn and production setbacks have impacted Rivian’s image. However, the company is taking initiatives to enhance its supply chain.
Last month, Rivian reported better-than-expected third-quarter deliveries. It produced 16,304 vehicles and delivered 15,564 vehicles. In particular, Q3 deliveries reflected a 136% year-over-year growth. The company is also trying to improve its balance sheet and profitability.
Rivian is scheduled to announce its Q3 2023 results on November 7. Management’s commentary will give insights into the company’s financial position and efficiency measures. Analysts expect the company to report a loss per share of $1.34 in Q3 2023 compared to a loss of $1.57 per share in the prior-year quarter. They expect revenue of $1.32 billion. The company has guided for revenue in the range of $1.29 billion to $1.33 billion.
Is Rivian a Buy, Sell, or Hold?
On October 26, Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard upgraded Rivian Automotive stock from Hold to Buy with a price target of $29, as he feels that the pullback in the stock offers a good entry point for investors with a long-term investment horizon.
Sheppard noted that Rivian’s Q3 2023 production and deliveries exceeded expectations. He believes that the company is well-positioned to surpass its annual guidance. Rivian maintained its annual production guidance at 52,000 vehicles. This implies that it needs to produce only 12,309 vehicles in Q4 to achieve its outlook, given that it has already produced 39,691 units year-to-date.
Highlighting that Q4 tends to be the strongest quarter for production and deliveries due to seasonality, the analyst expects the company to produce 14,309 vehicles in Q4 and 54,000 in the full year.
Including Sheppard, 14 analysts have a Buy rating on the stock, six have a Hold recommendation, while one has a Sell rating. The average price target of $27.95 implies 58% upside potential. Shares have declined about 4% year-to-date.
Nio (NYSE:NIO)
This year has been quite tough for Chinese EV maker Nio. Supply chain woes due to COVID-led disruptions, intense competition, macro pressures, and mounting losses have impacted the stock, which is down about 16% so far in 2023.
On Friday, Nio stock advanced about 6% on news of a 10% workforce reduction. In a letter to employees, CEO William Li cautioned that there will be the “most intense competition” in the next two years. The company has developed a detailed organizational and business optimization plan, under which it aims to focus on investing in technology, ensure the timely release of core products, and exit projects that fail to contribute to its financial performance in three years.
The rise in the stock following the news of the restructuring plans reflects that investors welcomed these much-needed measures that could improve Nio’s performance in the quarters ahead.
Earlier this week, Nio reported about a 60% year-over-year rise in its October deliveries to 16,074 vehicles. October deliveries increased 2.8% compared to September. The company is optimistic about the road ahead, given its cutting-edge technology and the battery-as-a-service offering.
Is Nio a Good Stock to Buy Now?
Following the news of Nio’s decision to streamline its operations, Morgan Stanley analyst Tim Hsiao commented that cost reduction “appears imperative,” given that the company incurred significant cash burn and losses in the first half of 2023.
Hsiao believes that if Nio’s streamlining efforts prove effective, they will gradually address the market’s concerns about the company’s cash flow and financials. Hsiao reiterated a Buy rating on the stock with a price target of $18.70.
With six Buys and three Holds, Nio stock scores a Moderate Buy consensus rating. The average price target of $14.16 suggests 72% upside potential.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA)
Shares of EV giant Tesla have risen over 78% year-to-date. However, the stock has pulled back about 11% over the past month due to growing concerns about the company’s declining margins, intense competition, persistent delay in Cybertruck deliveries, and macro pressures.
Tesla triggered a price war in the EV industry by aggressively slashing prices on its EVs to spur demand. However, lower prices have weighed on the company’s margins, with Q3 2023 margins plunging to 7.6% from 17.2% in the comparable quarter last year.
In the Q3 earnings call, CEO Elon Musk expressed concerns about a high interest rate backdrop and macro challenges impacting EV affordability. In fact, recently, the company’s key supplier, Panasonic Holdings (PCRFF), cut its battery production for the third quarter, citing slowing demand for high-end EVs in North America. This increased investors’ worries about the demand backdrop for Tesla’s EVs.
Is Tesla Stock a Buy or Sell Right Now?
On October 19, Canaccord Genuity analyst George Gianarikas reduced his estimates and also lowered the price target for Tesla to $267 from $293, citing more gradual margin improvements and marginally subdued unit growth through 2025.
That said, the analyst maintained a Buy rating on the stock, saying that his long-term view on Tesla remains “unwavering” and is, in fact, enhanced by the United Auto Workers (UAW) strike, reports about a new giga-casting technology, and the Optimus robot.
Wall Street’s Moderate Buy consensus rating on Tesla stock is based on 14 Buys, 14 Holds, and five Sells. The average price target of $252.61 implies 15% upside potential.
Conclusion
Wall Street is cautiously optimistic about Rivian, Nio, and Tesla due to macro pressures and certain company-specific risks, as discussed above. Analysts see the highest upside potential in Nio shares and view the pullback in the stock as an attractive opportunity to build a position for the long term. Furthermore, as per TipRanks’ Smart Score System, Nio has a better smart score of eight than the other two stocks, implying that it could outperform the broader market over the long term.
