Ahead of McDonald’s (MCD) Q1 2026 earnings expected to be announced on May 7, UBS analyst Dennis Geiger reiterated a Buy rating on MCD stock with a price target of $365. While the analyst expects MCD’s Q1 key metrics to miss expectations, he remains bullish as he believes that the “brand remains well positioned globally and maintains important initiatives to strengthen trends.” MCD stock has declined about 7% year-to-date. Geiger sees the pullback as a buying opportunity.
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Meanwhile, Wall Street expects MCD to report EPS (earnings per share) of $2.75, reflecting about 3% year-over-year growth. Revenue is projected to rise by 8.6% to $6.47 billion.
UBS Is Bullish on MCD Stock Despite Near-Term Challenges
Geiger expects U.S. same-store sales growth of 3.5%, compared to the consensus of 4%, and International Operated Markets (IOM) segment same-store sales growth of 3.5%, compared to the consensus of 3.8%. The analyst added that momentum was solid at the start of Q1 2026, driven by the Hot Honey Sauce and menu lineup, partially offset by severe winter weather. However, trends likely slowed later in Q1 due to higher gas prices and unfavorable consumer sentiment.
Furthermore, Geiger noted that discussions indicate negative investor sentiment due to decelerating U.S. sales trends so far in Q2 2026, tough U.S. comparisons in the second half, and potential impacts of the conflict in the Middle East. That said, Geiger expects strong execution on key sales plans to continue, with value, marketing initiatives, and menu innovation expected to drive growth.
Despite ongoing challenges, Geiger believes the risk/reward for MCD stock is attractive, backed by catalysts that could drive market share gains and bolster U.S. sales growth, and defensive characteristics that would ensure earnings stability. Also, he expects the launch of the new beverage platform to deliver robust contribution, as reflected in initial reactions, including incremental occasions and a higher average check. Geiger expects U.S. same-store sales growth of 2.3% for 2026.
Is MCD a Good Stock to Buy Now?
Wall Street has a Moderate Buy consensus rating on McDonald’s stock based on 14 Buys and 12 Holds. The average MCD stock price target of $347.13 indicates 22% upside potential.
