Archer Aviation (ACHR) is gaining fresh support from a four-star investor who sees the company as a key player in urban air travel. In his first coverage of the stock, Emanuel Nemec lays out a bullish case built on tech, location, and valuation.
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Archer will report its fourth-quarter earnings next week, on March 2.
According to Nemec, electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft (eVTOL) could help solve traffic in major cities. He notes that helicopters were too loud and costly for wide use, while eVTOL aircraft use electric motors that are quieter and simpler in design. As he sees it, that shift opens the door for air taxi use in dense areas like Los Angeles.
He also points to industry data that projects the global eVTOL market could reach about $29 billion by 2030, with strong annual growth. Meanwhile, Archer shares trade just above $7, well below a 52-week high of $14.62 and prior levels above $17. However, Nemec believes the market has mispriced the stock.
Hawthorne Airport and LA28 Add Strategic Edge
In his analysis, Nemec highlights Archer’s $126 million cash deal to acquire control of Hawthorne Airport in Los Angeles and considers it a big win for the company. The airport sits close to LAX, SoFi Stadium, and downtown LA. Archer plans to use it as a hub for its air taxi network and as a site for AI-driven aviation systems.
From Nemec’s view, this is more than an asset buy. He argues it creates a strong position in a major city where new airport permits are hard to secure. He even suggests it could limit rival access in the area, notably, Joby Aviation (JOBY).
Moreover, Archer was named the Official Air Taxi Provider of the LA28 Olympic Games. Nemec sees this as prime marketing exposure. He believes global media coverage of air taxis during the Games could draw new investor interest if Archer gains full approval in time.
On the tech side, he notes that advances in battery technology, such as higher-energy-density cells from Amprius Technologies (AMPX), support longer flights. He also points out that the FAA and EASA are working toward aligned standards, which could ease global rollout.
Valuation Gap Versus Joby Aviation
In his analysis, Nemec compares Archer with Joby Aviation. Joby has a market cap of nearly $9.5 billion, while Archer has a market cap of about $5 billion. He believes that the gap reflects a view that Joby is about one year ahead in FAA approval.
However, Nemec argues that, over the long term, the lead may not justify such a large gap. As of the third quarter of 2025, Archer held about $1.7 billion in current assets and about $240 million in total liabilities. He suggests that net cash lowers the implied value of the core business.
Looking ahead, he models a scenario where U.S. eVTOL revenue reaches $10 billion by 2030, and Archer captures 30%. That would mean $3 billion in annual revenue. Using price-to-sales multiples between 3.5 times and 6 times, he sees a possible market cap range of $10.5 billion to $18 billion. He even argues that if Archer evolves into an air taxi service similar in model to Tesla’s (TSLA) robotaxi plans, the upside could be higher.
Based on this view, Nemec rates Archer a Strong Buy for long-term investors.
Key Risks Remain
Still, he outlines clear risks. First is the FAA delay. His Olympic thesis depends on full approval in time for the Games. If that slips, the marketing boost could fade. He cites CEO Goldstein, who said, “At some point in the next two years, Archer is also hoping to launch Midnight services in Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay area.”
Second is production risk. Archer relies on Stellantis (STLA) for manufacturing. Any supply issues with that partner could slow the rollout and impact stock levels.
Overall, Nemec believes that if investors trust in the long-term role of eVTOL in city travel, Archer deserves a place in a growth-focused portfolio. In the near term, volatility may persist. However, for those willing to wait, he sees significant upside if approval and scale goals are met.
Is Archer Aviation Stock a Good Buy?
The Street analysts are relatively optimistic about the company’s prospects. Based on three recent ratings, Archer Aviation boasts a “Moderate Buy” consensus with an average ACHR stock price target of $11.50. This implies a 59.94% upside from the current price.
