Odds On: Want to bet on where Drake’s “Iceman” charts?

“Odds On” is The Fly’s weekly series diving into the most interesting bets on events trading platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, and Robinhood. Subscribers, add $EBET to your Fly portfolios for alerts on news about events trading.

THE BACKGROUND: Drake released his ninth solo studio album “Iceman” along with “Habibti” and “Maid of Honour,” creating a 43-song triple-album event. His latest albums arrive after the fallout from his public feud with Kendrick Lamar. The rollout itself turned into a music marketing campaign leaned heavily into Toronto imagery and spectacle. Drake has built one of the most dominant chart runs in the history of Billboard, especially in the streaming era. The Canadian rapper’s career directly intersects with how streaming changed chart longevity, volume and release strategy. Drake recently made Billboard history by becoming the first artist ever to have three albums spend over 10 years on the Billboard 200.

THE BET: Kalshi offers “Will Drake’s ‘Iceman’ debut at #1?” with a total volume of $66,851. Traders on Kalshi are pricing in a 91.5% chance of “Iceman” debuting at number one. The “Yes” contract was last trading at 95c, while the “No” contract stood at 9c.

Meanwhile, Polymarket has the market “Will ICEMAN debut No.1 on Billboard 200?” with a total volume of $18,172. There is currently a 96% chance of “Iceman” debuting at number one on Billboard 200. The “Yes” contract was last trading at 96c, while the “No” contract stood at 4.1c.

THE RULES: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Drake’s next officially released album debuts at No. 1 on the Billboard 200 albums chart for its first charted week following release. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve as soon as Billboard publishes the first chart week in which the album appears. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Billboard.