Odds On: Want to bet on Musk v. Altman? Here’s the latest

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BACKGROUND: The lawsuit between Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk and OpenAI is a fight over the origin of OpenAI and what it became. The defendants are OpenAI, Sam Altman, OpenAI president Greg Brockman and Microsoft (MSFT). Musk was one of OpenAI’s original co-founders back in 2015, alongside OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and others. The founding idea was to build advanced AI as a nonprofit and open organization that wouldn’t be driven by profit motives or controlled by a single dominant tech player. Musk helped fund it early on but left the board in 2018 in protest after reported disagreements about direction and potential conflicts with Tesla’s own AI ambitions. The current case, filed in 2024 and playing out in federal district court, has Musk arguing that OpenAI, and specifically Altman, violated that original mission. His claim is that OpenAI effectively transitioned into a for-profit enterprise and in doing so abandoned its commitment to openness and broad public benefit. He frames it as a breach of contract and fiduciary duty, alleging that the organization’s technology has been commercialized and closed off in ways that contradict its founding principles. OpenAI and Altman have pushed back this argument. Their argument is that the structure shift was necessary to raise the massive capital required to compete in AI development, and that the capped-profit model still aligns with the original mission by limiting investor returns and prioritizing long-term safety. They’ve also argued that Musk’s claims misunderstand both the legal structure and the practical realities of building frontier AI, and in some filings have suggested Musk is motivated in part by competitive interests tied to his own AI company, xAI. The trial is anticipated to last approximately three weeks total.

THE BET: Kalshi offers “Will Elon win his case against OpenAI?” with a total volume of $546,383. Traders on Kalshi are pricing in a 51.3% chance of Musk winning the case. The “Yes” contract was last trading at 51c, while the “No” contract stood at 50c.

Meanwhile, Polymarket has the market “Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?” with a total volume of $189,312. There is currently a 33% chance of Musk winning the case, according to Polymarket. The “Yes” contract was last trading at 33c, while the “No” contract stood at 68c.

THE RULES: If the U.S. District Court in the Northern District of California sides with Elon Musk in Musk v. Altman et al before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Kalshi noted sources from The Source Agencies are, in hierarchical order: judicial body official records and electronic filing systems, court clerk’s office for judicial body, PACER, Westlaw Court Records, Bloomberg Law Court Filings, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Bloomberg News, Reuters, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, Law360, Legal Monitor Worldwide, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, NBC, Politico, and STAT News.