Here’s what Wall Street is saying about IBM ahead of earnings

IBM (IBM) is scheduled to report results of its fiscal first quarter after the market close on April 22, with a conference call scheduled for 5:00 pm ET. What to watch for:

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GUIDANCE: Along with its last report, IBM guided for Q1 constant currency revenue growth similar to that of FY26, which the company guides for more than 5% growth. Wall Street expects IBM to report Q1 earnings per share of $1.81 on revenue of $15.65B, as well as FY26 revenue of $71.18B.

PT CUTS: At least six securities firms lowered their price targets on IBM ahead of the company’s quarterly report, with Jefferies cutting its target to $320 from $370 with a Buy rating. The firm views IBM as set up for a Q1 beat of Street estimates of 11% year-over-year software growth on the easiest comp of the year, the analyst told investors in a preview. RBC Capital analyst Matthew Swanson lowered the firm’s price target on IBM to $330 from $361 with an Outperform rating. The company’s prior year ended with a broad-based beat in Q4 as software outperformance came despite slower than expected growth from Hybrid Cloud, and the firm expects things to pick up where they left off with a top-line beat driven by infrastructure and software strength being driven by Automation and Transaction Processing, the analyst told investors in a research note. RBC added that its reduced price target on IBM reflects peer multiple contraction.

Meanwhile, Oppenheimer cut the firm’s price target on Outperform-rated IBM to $320 from $380 on recent compression in market multiples, but sees the stock as highly undervalued at current levels. The firm said IBM has a clear path to beating Q1 estimates and raising full-year revenue on strength in software, as well as an earlier close on Confluent. However, Oppenheimer expects management to remain conservative on free cash flow and maintain their guide of $15.7B. Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring also lowered the firm’s price target on IBM to $215 from $247 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares, saying the firm thinks Q1 numbers should move higher, but it doesn’t believe Q1 EPS moving 4% higher is “enough to reignite the IBM bull case” as software, services and quantum peers continue to de-rate and have de-rated faster than IBM over the last 90 days.

Additionally, BofA reduced the firm’s price target on IBM to $300 from $340 and maintained a Buy rating on the shares, with the firm expecting the focus to be on the Confluent integration and contribution to FY26, RedHat consumption growth, and the sustainability of IBM’s software and consulting segments given the recent disruption narrative in the industry. Stifel analyst David Grossman also lowered the firm’s price target on IBM to $290 from $340 earlier this month, having made tweaks to its 2026 estimates prior to the company’s Q1 report to reflect potential headwinds from the Gulf conflict to software and services growth as well as the Confluent acquisition closing ahead of schedule.

CITI INITIATION: Not every firm presented a more conservative view heading into the quarterly print. Earlier this month, Citi initiated coverage of IBM with a Buy rating and $285 price target The firm views the shares as “defensive” in an “increasingly hostile” backdrop for enterprise software. IBM’s hardware and software “entrenchment” offer an “insulation” from AI risk while its exposure to the next leg of production enterprise AI systems is underappreciated at current share levels, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Citi sees a compelling risk/reward at current share levels.

EVERCORE: Additionally, Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani added IBM to the firm’s “Tactical Outperform” list earlier this week as the analyst expects the company to deliver a Q1 beat and revise their 2026 constant currency revenue growth view higher. The firm has an Outperform rating and $345 price target on IBM shares.