Here’s what Wall Street experts are saying about Nvidia ahead of earnings

Nvidia (NVDA) is scheduled to report results of its first fiscal quarter after the market close on Wednesday, May 20, with a conference call scheduled for 5:00 pm ET. What to watch for:

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EXPECTATIONS: During its last earnings conference call, Nvidia said its outlook for Q1 included revenue of $78.0B, plus or minus 2%; GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins in the range of 74.9%-75.0%, respectively, plus or minus 50 basis points, inclusive of a 0.1% impact from stock-based compensation expense. GAAP and non-GAAP operating expenses were expected to be approximately $7.7B and $7.5B, respectively, inclusive of $1.9B of stock-based compensation expense. Nvidia was not assuming any Data Center compute revenue from China in its outlook, the company stated at the time.

Current consensus revenue forecast for Nvidia’s April-end quarter stand at $79.12B, according to data from Yahoo Finance.

Speaking during the GTC Keynote back in March, Nvidia founder and CEO Jensen Huang said, “The inflection, the inference inflection, has arrived. Last year at this time, I said that where I stood at that moment in time, we saw about $500B. We saw $500B of very high confidence demand and purchase orders for Blackwell and Ruben through 2026. I said that last year. Now, I don’t know if you guys feel the same way, but $500B is an enormous amount of revenue. Not one impressed. I know why you’re not impressed because all of you had record years. Well, I’m here to tell you that right now, where I stand, a few short months after GTC DC, one year after last GTC, right here where I stand, I see, through 2027, at least $1 trillion.”

ANOTHER SOLID QUARTER: In a research note ahead of earnings, Wedbush reiterated an Outperform rating on Nvidia with a price target of $300 on the shares. The firm said it fully expects “the leading supplier of AI silicon” will again exceed estimates and guide above Street given continued positive data points through Q1 as well as healthy 2026 AI infrastructure spend, and superior supply chain certainty in a period plagued by constraints. The question rather is if “we will finally see a more positive stock reaction after a series of blasé moves following solid prints,” Wedbush added.

Voicing a similar opinion, BofA told investors that it expects the usual historical 2%-4% or $2B-$4B sales outperformance relative to current sell-side expectations. However, beyond headlines, the firm expects the focus to be on potential for enhanced cash returns, Vera Rubin ramp timing, gross margin durability, update to $1T 2025-2027 forecast — especially the contribution from liquid cooled processing unit racks, central processing units and Vera Rubin Ultra, not included before, and competitive landscape changes against Google TPU, agentic CPU, other ASICs. BofA maintains a Buy rating, top pick, $320 price target on the company’s dominance in the fastest growing tech market and its compelling valuation at less than 20 times 2027 price-to-earnings or only 0.4 times price to earnings to growth relative to 46%-plus 2025-2028 EPS compound annual growth rate.

BEAT AND RAISE: On Tuesday, HSBC analyst Frank Lee raised the firm’s price target on Nvidia to $325 from $295, while keeping a Buy rating on the shares. HSBC expects the company to report a “beat and raise” fiscal Q2 on May 200. Nvidia shares have underperformed peers over the last six months despite having two conference events and two sets of financial results that beat estimates and raised expectations, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes the company needs to show evidence of diversifying its non-cloud service provider customer base to fuel its AI graphics processing unit momentum.

Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore also raised the firm’s price target on Overweight-rated Nvidia to $285 from $260 ahead of the company reporting results. The firm, which is expecting continued upside in numbers and a bullish tone on key debates, thinks “the typical beat and raise pattern is a likely outcome” and thinks the quarter will be “a positive step towards a stock rerating.” With that said, Morgan Stanley added that Nvidia “can only do so much on a Q1 earnings call to ease concerns on longer term debates.”

Keeping an Overweight rating on the name, KeyBanc raised the firm’s price target on Nvidia to $300 from $275. The firm expects Nvidia to deliver strong results and guidance, driven by several upside catalysts, namely Blackwell GPU shipments rising by 150K-200K quarter-over-quarter, adding an estimated $5B-$7B in revenue; initial Rubin revenue of $3B-$4B included in the outlook; and improving HBM4 supply supporting Rubin GPU shipments of 1.7M-1.8M units this year. While China H200 approvals could represent $13B-$14B in potential revenue, KeyBanc expects management to exclude this from guidance but still outline the possible impact.

SENTIMENT: Click here to check out the recent Media Buzz Sentiment on Nvidia as measured by TipRanks.