Both the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) closed lower on Friday as investors began to price in the odds of higher rates in 2026 on the 21st day of the U.S.-Iran war.
Meet Samuel – Your Personal Investing Prophet
- Start a conversation with TipRanks’ trusted, data-backed investment intelligence
- Ask Samuel about stocks, your portfolio, or the market and get instant, personalized insights in seconds
News That Moved the Stock Market Today
- By year-end, the odds of rates remaining unchanged between 3.50% and 3.75% stand at 66.9%. The odds of rates rising by 25 bps and 50 bps are at 21.7% and 2.6%, respectively. Both of these odds were at 0% a week ago.
- The Fed may be forced to hike rates in order to counter oil-driven inflation stemming from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman Sachs warned that oil could exceed its record high of $147.50 set in 2008 if the passage remains closed.
- Meanwhile, President Trump is considering either occupying or blockading Iran’s Kharg Island, according to Axios. The island handles approximately 90% of Iran’s oil exports from pipes connected to the mainland.
- The Pentagon sent three warships with roughly 2,300 Marines on board to the Middle East in the latest sign of escalating tensions.
- Super Micro Computer (SMCI) plunged 33% after the U.S. Department of Justice charged one of its co-founders with smuggling Nvidia (NVDA) chips to China.
- Amazon (AMZN) is planning on introducing a smartphone to take on Apple (AAPL) and Samsung (SSNLF).
- Boeing (BA) closed in the red following reports that NASA would reduce its role in favor of SpaceX for moon-landing plans.
Today’s Best-Performing Sector
Energy was the best-performing sector for a fourth straight day amid rising oil prices. The sector was led higher by oil exploration and production companies as Middle East countries limit output in response to Iranian strikes on key infrastructure sites, exacerbating a supply crunch from halted traffic at the Strait of Hormuz.
Several stocks led the energy sector’s gains, including:
Today’s Worst-Performing Sector
Meanwhile, utilities faced the largest drawdown on Friday. Higher oil prices fueled inflation concerns and pushed interest rates higher, making the sector less attractive due to its sensitivity to borrowing costs and yields. Profit-taking in defensive stocks also added to the downward pressure.
Notable stocks trading lower include: