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Lottomatica: Buy Rating Reiterated as Q1 Beat, Higher EBITDA Guidance and €1bn Capital Returns Support Unchanged $32 Price Target

Lottomatica: Buy Rating Reiterated as Q1 Beat, Higher EBITDA Guidance and €1bn Capital Returns Support Unchanged $32 Price Target

Analyst James Wheatcroft from Jefferies maintained a Buy rating on Lottomatica Group S.P.A. and keeping the price target at €32.00.

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James Wheatcroft has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors that underscore Lottomatica’s attractive growth and return profile. The company’s first-quarter results modestly exceeded market expectations, prompting an increase in EBITDA guidance and pointing to steady earnings momentum into FY26, supported by rising online market share and operational efficiencies.

In addition, Lottomatica is signaling substantial capital returns, with buybacks and dividends together expected to deliver around €1bn to shareholders over FY26–27, while still retaining balance sheet capacity for bolt-on acquisitions in Italy. Against this backdrop of double-digit growth, favorable Italian regulation for scale players, and a relatively low FY26 valuation multiple and solid free cash flow yield, Wheatcroft maintains his unchanged $32 price target and Buy recommendation.

Wheatcroft covers the Consumer Cyclical sector, focusing on stocks such as Entain plc, J D Wetherspoon, and Lottomatica Group S.P.A.. According to TipRanks, Wheatcroft has an average return of 3.9% and a 46.02% success rate on recommended stocks.

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