Analyst Maintains Hold on Greenfire Resources, Keeps Price Target Unchanged at $9.50 Amid Near-Term Cash Constraints

Tariq Saad, an analyst from BMO Capital, maintained the Hold rating on Greenfire Resources. The associated price target remains the same with C$9.50.

Tariq Saad has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors that balance Greenfire Resources’ solid operational outlook with near‑term financial constraints. The company is executing broadly in line with expectations, with Q1/26 production and cash flow close to forecasts and a clear growth path as Pad 7 ramps and Pad 8 is brought forward, supporting an outlook for materially higher volumes by 2028.

At the same time, Saad highlights that Greenfire is significantly increasing its 2026 capital program to accelerate Pad 8, which means spending will substantially exceed cash generation over the next few years while the business is also heavily hedged, limiting upside to current commodity prices and implying notable realized hedge losses. These factors suggest that much of the value from volume growth and a better cost structure will only start to be visible from the second half of 2027 onward, leading him to maintain a neutral stance with an unchanged price target of $9.50.