Streaming giant Netflix (NFLX) is scheduled to announce its second-quarter earnings on July 16. NFLX stock is down 21% year-to-date amid concerns over softer subscriber engagement despite low customer churn. According to TipRanks’ Options Tool, options traders are pricing in an 8.03% move in NFLX stock in either direction following the earnings release. That implied move is higher than the stock’s average post-earnings move of 5.99% over the past four quarters.
Summer Sale - Claim 70% Off TipRanks
- Unlock powerful investing tools with TipRanks Premium to make smarter, more confident investment decisions
- Subscribe to TipRanks Smart Investor Newsletter, and discover new investing opportunities with data-backed stock picks
For context, Netflix is one of the world’s largest streaming platforms. It creates and licenses movies, TV shows, and live content for a global audience.
What to Expect from Netflix’s Q2 Results
Wall Street expects Netflix to report Q2 2026 earnings of $0.79 per share, reflecting about 10% year-over-year growth. Revenue is projected to rise 13.5% to $12.58 billion.
When Netflix reports on July 16, investors will closely watch its operating margin. Management has guided for a 32.6% margin in the second quarter and reaffirmed its full-year target of 31.5%. The guidance includes about $275 million in M&A-related costs incurred earlier this year.
Since Netflix no longer reports quarterly subscriber counts, investors will focus on other growth metrics. They will look for updates on the ad-supported tier, which is targeting $3 billion in revenue this year. The market will also watch for progress toward the company’s $12.5 billion free cash flow goal for 2026.
Analysts Remain Bullish on Netflix Stock
Ahead of the report, Morgan Stanley analyst Sean Diffley lowered his price target on Netflix to $90 from $115. However, he kept his Overweight rating on the stock. Diffley expects Netflix to report mostly in-line second-quarter results. He also expects the company to give an in-line third-quarter outlook and reaffirm its full-year 2026 guidance. In addition, he hopes Netflix will increase the pace of its share buybacks.
Likewise, KeyBanc analyst Justin Patterson expects Netflix’s second-quarter results to be broadly in line with Wall Street estimates. He kept a Buy rating on the stock but lowered his price target to $92 from $115, citing a lower valuation multiple and slower earnings growth.
He also lowered his financial forecasts. He now expects 2026 revenue of $51.2 billion, down less than 1% from his earlier estimate, and 2027 revenue of $57.1 billion, down about 1%. Patterson also cut his 2026 EPS estimate to $3.57 from $3.62 and lowered his 2027 EPS forecast to $3.85 from $4.00.
Is NFLX Stock a Good Buy?
Turning to Wall Street, analysts have a Strong Buy consensus rating on NFLX stock based on 24 Buys, eight Holds, and zero Sells assigned in the past three months, as indicated by the graphic below. Furthermore, the average NFLX price target of $112.70 per share implies 52% upside potential. (See NFLX Stock Forecast).
