Gold investors piled back into the precious metal today on hopes that the price will soar above $6,000 an ounce by the end of the year driven by central bank demand.
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Move Away from the Dollar
Banking giant JP Morgan (JPM) has forecast that the gold price will sit at $6,300 an ounce by the end of 2026 propelled higher by increased central bank buying, public announcements of U.S. Treasury divestment and countries shifting their revenue bases away from the dollar and into Chinese renminbi.
In view of these factors, the bank said it had upped its weighting for the “reserve currency paradigm shift” and “significant investor diversification.”
Macquarie Group earlier this month lifted its average first-quarter 2026 gold forecast to $4,590 an ounce, up from $4,300 previously and hiked its second-quarter estimate to $4,300 from $4,200. It also raised its average 2026 gold price forecast to $4,323 per ounce, compared with an earlier estimate of $4,225.
The spot gold price has risen about 20% this year, hitting a three-week high of $5,248.89 an ounce earlier this week, just off its January 29 all-time high of $5,594.82. Today it was up 0.05% to just over $5,180.
The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) was also higher today – see above.
Trump’s Union Address
Gold investors were also buoyed by President Trump’s lengthy State of the Union address after he stated that no changes to his tariff policy were in the offing as the “deals are all done.” That was in response to “the Supreme Court’s unfortunate involvement” in ruling against his broad-based tariff policy which has seen huge hikes on countries such as Canada and Mexico.
However, plans to raise the global tariff rate from the new 10% to 15% are reportedly still in the works.
This resurgence in trade uncertainty has boosted gold’s appeal as a safe haven. Another driver – geopolitical tension in the Middle East – is also not dampening down as the U.S. military keeps a strong presence in the area ahead of the next round of nuclear talks with Iran this week.
“It seems a breakout to the upside is in the making,” said Yuxuan Tang, head of macro strategy for Asia at JP Morgan Private Bank. Tariff uncertainty and Iran risk are among the factors that “may prove sufficient to catalyze a more sustained shift.”
What are the Best Gold ETFs to Buy Now?
We have rounded up the best gold ETFs to buy now using our TipRanks comparison tool. As can be seen below, the best performer over the last 12 months has been the SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (GLDM) with a 72.56% return.
