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Mengniu flags 2025 revenue drop but sees profit rebound despite impairments

Story Highlights
  • Mengniu expects a 7%–8% revenue decline and slightly lower margins in 2025 while investing in R&D and digitalisation to support long-term competitiveness and product diversification.
  • The dairy group will book RMB 2.2–2.4 billion in impairments yet still forecasts a sharp rebound in 2025 profit and stable cash flow as demand and key product categories recover.
  • Looking for the best stocks to buy? Follow the recommendations of top-performing analysts.
Mengniu flags 2025 revenue drop but sees profit rebound despite impairments

Meet Samuel – Your Personal Investing Prophet

China Mengniu Dairy Co ( (HK:2319) ) just unveiled an announcement.

China Mengniu Dairy has warned that revenue for 2025 is expected to fall by about 7% to 8% year-on-year as consumer demand, sales channels and competitive conditions continue to shift, eroding economies of scale and slightly narrowing operating margins to an estimated 7.9% to 8.1%. In response, the group is maintaining its long-term “One Core, Two Wings” strategy, increasing spending on R&D and digital initiatives, and leaning on growth in fresh milk, milk powder and cheese to diversify its product mix.

The company also plans to book impairment provisions of roughly RMB 2.2 billion to RMB 2.4 billion on idle production facilities and certain financial and contract assets with uncertain recoverability, but still expects 2025 profit attributable to shareholders to rise sharply to about RMB 1.4 billion to RMB 1.6 billion from a low base in 2024. Management emphasised that the write-downs should not materially affect current or future operations or cash flow, noting that operating cash flow is expected to remain stable and that liquid milk revenues have shown sequential stabilisation and recovery since the second half of 2025 as raw milk prices and demand improve.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2319) stock is a Hold with a HK$16.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Mengniu Dairy Co stock, see the HK:2319 Stock Forecast page.

More about China Mengniu Dairy Co

China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited is a leading Chinese dairy producer listed in Hong Kong, operating through multiple subsidiaries across segments such as liquid milk, fresh milk, milk powder and cheese. The group focuses on brand-building and product innovation in the domestic dairy market, supported by investments in research, development and digitalisation to enhance operational efficiency and competitiveness.

Average Trading Volume: 24,804,583

Technical Sentiment Signal: Strong Sell

Current Market Cap: HK$58.49B

See more data about 2319 stock on TipRanks’ Stock Analysis page.

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