Nio Stock Forecast: Trending Calls Tempered By Caution

(NIO) stock has fallen 8.2% over the past week and dropped 13.6% over the past month, yet it is still up a strong 44.3% over the last 12 months. Wall Street’s analysts hold a ModerateBuy consensus, with an average 12‑month price target of $6.21, pointing to modest upside from the last close around $5.60.

Analyst Ming-Hsun Lee of Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong) reiterated a Neutral (Hold) rating on Nio on May 22, 2026, and lifted his price objective slightly to $6.80. That target suggests limited upside but reflects confidence in the company’s improving fundamentals and strong product pipeline despite growing sector headwinds.

Lee expects Nio’s 1Q26 performance to mark a turning point, with total revenue of RMB25.5 billion rising 112% year over year, driven by 98% growth in vehicle sales volume and higher average selling prices. Overall gross profit margin improved to 19.0%, beating his 17.0% forecast, thanks to a vehicle margin of 18.8% and a more favorable model mix centered on higher-end ES8 sales.

Management is guiding for 2Q26 deliveries of 110,000 to 115,000 units, up 53% to 60% year over year, while targeting 17% to 18% vehicle margin for both the quarter and full year 2026. They acknowledge rising raw material costs that add about RMB10,000 per vehicle, but expect better product mix, reduced discounts, operational efficiencies, and supplier negotiations to help keep margins steady.

Reflecting these trends, Lee raised his 2026 and 2027 earnings forecasts, boosting non-GAAP net profit estimates by 593% and 23%, respectively, and nudging his price objective from $6.70 to $6.80. This N-star analyst ranks 2,077 out of 12,208 on TipRanks, with a 35.19% success rate and 13.80% average return per rating. Never miss a stock rating. Find all the latest ratings on TipRanks’ Top Wall Street Analysts page.